The 4 Possible Bitcoin Scenarios In The Long Run

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Bitcoin Leaves No One Indifferent

That’s obvious, but I think that pointing this out is important.

Some are the Bitcoin’s absolute supporters and its revolution. Bitcoin is a real opportunity for them to restore a fully decentralized and trust-based financial system. Among these supporters are the famous HODLERS who are conscientiously accumulating Bitcoin month after month, whatever their price, because they are convinced that in the future their price will reach new heights.

There are central bankers, economists and politicians, on the other hand, who see Bitcoin as a major risk. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s mass acceptance may clearly undermine its ability to create infinite money.

Then there are the media that use Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to create sensational headlines without bothering to understand the ins and outs of this revolutionary technology.

Lastly, in the midst of all this, the general public is not sure what to think about a Bitcoin whose excessive volatility and potential role in money laundering is constantly underlined. Therefore, many people clearly do not know about Bitcoin’s potential and how it might well transform their lives in the future.

The Bitcoin Future Price Makes You Imagine

Whatever your position on Bitcoin, I’m sure you’re intrigued by at least one thing about Bitcoin. I know because almost everyone on Earth is intrigued by this thing.

Everyone asks what the Bitcoin price will be in the future.

Bitcoin’s future price makes you fantasy. Everyone therefore has a small prognosis: from Bitcoin influencers to economists, everybody seems to have their own views on the issue.

A well-known venture capitalist with significant investments in Baidu, Skype and Tesla, Tim Draper has long believed in Bitcoin and that’s why he purchased, for example, 30,000 BTC in June 2014. Consequently, its predictions on Bitcoin’s future price are necessarily influenced.

Tim Draper predicts a $250,000 worth of Bitcoin in 2022!

Bobby Lee, BTC China’s CEO, sees Bitcoin’s even brighter future as he predicts a $1 million price in 2028. The fact is that no one can predict the price of Bitcoin with certainty. Obviously, I was included.

On the other hand, possible possibilities for Bitcoin’s existence can be imagined. So here are my 4 potential long-term Bitcoin major scenarios.

Bitcoin becomes a reserve currency

1. Bitcoin becomes a reserve currency in the world

Bitcoin HODLERS are persuaded that Bitcoin will be a global reserve currency in the future and will replace the US dollar. The Bitcoin’s actual HODLERS would become immensely wealthy if this long-term scenario were to come true.

When Bitcoin were to become a global reserve currency, the first HODLERS would even be billionaires.

There would need to be a real mass adoption of Bitcoin by the general public for this scenario to happen. All merchants around the world would then accept Bitcoin as well as the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies.

The fact that Bitcoin is used as a means of exchange and a means of payment by the greatest number of people makes the value even higher. The very high volume of transactions generated by Bitcoin’s mass adoption allows transaction fees to be maintained at acceptable prices even though the reward to Bitcoin miners tends to be zero.

Then the original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto becomes true. In his document entitled “A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System,” Bitcoin’s mysterious creator describes it as follows:

“A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

At the end of 2019, this scenario is not currently relevant as many Bitcoin holders are only in the sense of accumulating BTC or using it as a simple trading device to produce maximum profits.

2. Bitcoin’s scarcity makes investors happy with a value that keeps rising

The Bitcoin Blockchain has a maximum minable quantity of BTC 21 million. Bitcoin’s scarcity is accentuated by the projected loss of almost 4 million BTC forever!

In fact, there will be at best 17 million Bitcoins in circulation and accessible in 2140.

With Bitcoin’s growing success, more and more people are going to want to own it. Successive Bitcoin Halvings will have limited the quantity of new Bitcoins for validating transactions every time a little more. Indeed, Bitcoin’s price will steadily rise, driven by strong public demand forever.

This strong demand from the general public, however, concerns Bitcoin’s speculative side and not its use as an exchange medium.

More and more retailers accept Bitcoin as a method of payment. Nevertheless, most people prefer to accumulate Bitcoins before reselling them for profit due to transaction fees that have become exorbitant following the virtual disappearance of the Bitcoin reward granted to miners validating transactions.

In this scenario, Bitcoin becomes primarily a security that goes against its creator’s original vision.

3. Bitcoin Becomes Digital Gold

Bitcoin has always been compared to gold in known finite supply and to be extracted. Bitcoin is virtual gold or gold 2.0 for many economists. As such, U.S. authorities find Bitcoin to be an asset.

Bitcoin is still young, explaining its price’s very high current volatility.

As time goes by, after several rounds of bullish and bearish markets, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise. Over time, the price has begun to stabilize in the same way as the gold price, which is quite stable compared to the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin plays the role of a store of value.

Bitcoin Forgotten

4. Bitcoin is going to be forgotten

The most unlikely scenario for me is the last one. Nevertheless, because it remains a possibility, I must mention it. Bitcoin might simply be forgotten in the future. Its price would drop sharply to the point that it was no longer worth much.

Then the Bitcoin HODLERS would be the big losers and their dream to become billionaires!

What could make Bitcoin virtually disappear?

Next, its substitution at the top of the market with another cryptocurrency. From Ethereum to Ripple, EOS or Bitcoin Cash, there is no shortage of competitors.

Neither should a newcomer addressing Bitcoin’s scalability problem and convincing a greater number of users of its usefulness be entirely excluded.

The Bitcoin would have nothing left after losing its user base, so it would have little support with its first-mover advantage.

The second possibility is that the Bitcoin adventure has been successfully terminated by the regulators of the major developed countries. It must be protected from this by its decentralized side, but who knows, we must consider the worst for this scenario.

Finally, the last chance is that Bitcoin will never reach its full potential due to users who prefer to use it for speculative purposes only. However, in my view, because of too much greed, many miss out on the change that it embodies.

Conclusion

What’s Bitcoin’s future? What is Bitcoin’s price going to be in 5, 10 or 50 years? All these questions are raised with the general public on a daily basis within the Bitcoin community, but also more broadly.

For certainty, no one can really answer these questions and that’s what makes life so fun. While Bitcoin may be the greatest technological revolution since the Internet came into being, there is no guarantee that it will realize its full potential by establishing itself as a global reserve currency alongside, or rather, the US dollar.

That’s exactly what makes Bitcoin so exciting to follow on a daily basis: the wildest dreams are allowed for their future, but nothing is guaranteed and the community will have to fight every day to let Bitcoin one day reach its full potential.

 

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